Oscar Buzz and the Big 10

With the Oscars approaching (on March 7, 2010), we're about to see a whole lotta movie releases. This year could turn out to be quite a race considering some categories have expanded, most notably with animated feature expanding from three to five, and get this--best picture going from five to ten. How will this clusterfuck work, you ask?

Best Picture will be decided on a system of preferential voting, whereas all other categories decide a winner upon whichever nominee receives the most votes. Voters will rank their preference from 1-10, and if after separating out all the first place rankings, there is a majority, that film will win. If not, the movie with the fewest first place rankings will be eliminated, and the 2nd place rankings on those ballots will be refactored into the remaining 9 films to see if there is a majority. If not, the process continues until a majority is reached. Confused? Yeah. It's pretty mind boggling. Click here for more info on the voting process.

The more pressing question, however, is why, dear God, why are there going to be 10 nominees? According to Academy President Sid Ganis, it gives films who often show up in other categories but are "squeezed out" of the best picture category a fighting chance. This is an obvious allusion to The Dark Knight, whose notable absence from last year's best picture category caused an internet uproar among fans.

Movies that have generated a significant amount of Oscar buzz this year so far are: An Education, Inglorious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man, Up in the Air, Precious, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, Up, District 9, and Nine.

Let's take a brief look into the possible nominees:

Best Picture
I'm thinking these pictures pretty much have a lock:

• The Hurt Locker
• Precious
• Nine
• Invictus
• Up in the Air

This leaves five possible slots for: Inglorious Basterds, A Serious Man, An Education, The Lovely Bones, or Up -- Yep. We'll probably see this animated film in the top 10. We all know if it came to the traditional 5 picture category, this movie wouldn't be here. And what about Star Trek, Where the Wild Things Are, and District 9? Could be, could be. Especially with 10 noms!

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus
• Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Oops. That's already 5. I'm sure this list will be changing as movies continue to open and reviews come pouring in.

Best Actress
These two basically have a lock in this category. Drawing a blank on who else might fit in though. I think Meryl may get a nom, and possibly Saoirse (though it seems like a long shot) seeing as the category is pretty open as of yet.

• Gabby Sidibe, Precious
• Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones?
  
• Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia?
  

Best Director
This is a tricky category seeing as there are ten Best Picture noms and only 5 Best Director noms. The only director I'm pretty sure of landing a nom at this point is Katherine Bigelow. I'm also thinking Jason Reitman has a good chance as well considering how much Oscar buzz Up in the Air is getting.

• Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
• Rob Marshall, Nine / Clint Eastwood, Invictus /Michael Mann, Public Enemies / Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones / Coen Brothers, A Serious Man / Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds ?
  

Best Supporting Actor
Another somewhat open category for me. If I had it my way, I'd want to see Christoph Waltz walk away with the best supporting actor award. He was gloriously evil in Inglorious Basterds.

• Matt Damon, Invictus
• Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  
• James McAvoy, The Last Station (Seeing as though he was previously snubbed for the Last King of Scotland and Atonement, James may just get a nod.) / Alfred Molina, An Education / Paul Schneider, Bright Star ?

Best Supporting Actress
I'm pulling for Mo'Nique or Anna Kendrick (most notably of Twilight saga fame). Mo'Nique's performance as an abusive mother in Precious blew critics away and I've been itching to see it for a long time. Kendrick is an up and coming actress, and she may have a small role in the Twilight saga movies, but she is alongside George Clooney in Up in the Air and is definitely someone to watch out for.

• Penelope Cruz, Nine
• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
• Mo'Nique, Precious
• Mariah Carey, Precious / Dame Judi Dench, Nine / Julianne Moore, A Single Man ?

Best Animated Feature
I'm thinking these three are definitely getting their nods, but now that this category has been expanded to 5, it's hard to say which movies will fill the other two slots.

• Coraline
• Ponyo
• Up
• The Princess and the Frog / 9 / Fantastic Mr. Fox / Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs ?

Should be interesting to see how these predictions develop as movies start coming out and Oscar season gets closer. I'd love to see which movies will get the nom for Best Original Screenplay since there aren't too many of them these days, not goods ones at least. If anything, I'd love to see this go to 500 Days of Summer, which had just the right amount of comedic timing, aww moments, and originality.

I'm excited to see how this awards season will unfold, especially with the 10 picture category. Eek.